Europe economic downturn
I just read another post showing how Europe lags in growth, revenue per capita, and global dynamism.
Everybody is trying to explain, justify, or contest this statement.
There is an overlooked and controversial subject, although it has dire consequences on economic prosperity and social cohesiveness. And this subject is dear to my heart, as a Frenchman with 20% English blood.
Languages.
Europe is fragmented in many respects: history, culture, religion, economy, law, rules, etc. This fragmentation is both a boon and a curse.
Having such a rich, diverse set of people and situations is excellent. It prevents us from having a unique, unchallenged point of view. It also prevents outsiders from conquering the space too quickly (US companies know that penetrating every single market is a challenge). Every European country is somehow protected by its specificities.
The other side is that reaching a consensus is a long-lasting chore. It also makes it difficult for European companies to grow fast within Europe, as the single market only exists in technocrats’ minds. This is why French companies are seldom successful in Germany and vice-versa. This is why there are few European gorillas. This is also why competition is not so intense, leading to lazy incumbents who provide poor customer experiences.
Up to this point, I omitted the strongest fragmentation of all: the language.
There are 24 official languages in Europe, and it is estimated that 200+ languages are spoken.
It’s still nothing compared to the 7000 estimated languages of the world.
The human brain API
Languages are the primary form of communication (« the human brain API »); they also express culture and a way of thinking.
In the context of start-ups and businesses, they are a pain in the ass:
You need to hire native people in every country if you want to have a chance to take significant ground.
You need to translate your content (sales, marketing, legal,…) into every language (at least for the main ones)
Your international team has a hard time understanding each other
My professional experience tells that European companies are going to the global competition race with a heavy weight tied to their feet. We have to remove the handicap if we want to win the race.
In the context of society at large, languages are creating misunderstandings and moats. A foreigner is, first and foremost, someone who doesn’t speak the same language.
As the Bible relates, the whole earth had one language and the same words at some point. Then, God punished the constructors of the Tower of Babel by dispersing them and creating language confusion.
Few things create more barriers to understanding, acceptance, and collaboration than a foreign language.
What is happening?
I am puzzled (and sometimes upset) by recent events:
Spain allows Catalan, Basque and Galician languages in Parliament
Ukrainian people revive their language and quit speaking Russian
French President Macron opened the international estate of the French language in Villers-Cotterêt (see below)
Algerian authorities have decided to replace the French language with English at universities.
With over 200 million speakers, Swahili bids to become Africa’s lingua franca.
China Is Cracking Down on Cantonese Language Advocacy in Hong Kong
All those events show that something is happening, that people remember language is an identity, but it can also be a protection or a conquest.
What would Europe look like if we were all speaking the same language?
That’s a question that keeps coming to my mind.
It may be challenging to envision, but we can flip the script and ask ourselves: what would France, for instance, look like if we were NOT speaking the same language?
In 1539, French King François 1er commanded that all legal documents be spoken and written in « français » in the ordinance of Villers-Cotterêts. This marked a major step towards France’s linguistic and ideological unification, detrimental to the dozen dialects spoken in different regions.
Every French citizen speaks French today, even though regional minorities like Occitans, Bretons, and Basques still maintain their original dialect as a second language.
I am glad we all speak French, and we don’t need a translator to talk to local people in Brittany or Alsace. I guess it is the same for English people talking to Welsh or Scottish people and for Hamburgers talking to Munichers.
I don’t think we risk a civil war between Brittany and the rest of France anymore. A France - Germany war is not likely but still possible (despite the EU, our governments have hidden agendas).
Coming back to the question, what would Europe look like? Well, something like a larger France, Germany, or Poland (but still missing some other unifying pieces).
Imagine four hundred million people speaking the same language. Imagine your children exchanging with teenagers from all around Europe. Imagine the strength it would give our companies to address the common market in a unique language.
At this point, many will think I am a dreamer, a globalist, or a capitalist who wants uniformity at the expense of diversity. I respect and praise diversity as long as it does not hinder progress.
Uniting is much more of a progress than dividing.
Which language shall Europeans choose?
Adopting a new language will take a few generations, so we need to anticipate how the world will evolve meanwhile.
Some will say that the common language exists: English is progressing everywhere and could become dominant before we learn a new language, making the whole endeavor useless.
Why bother if English is king?
On an economic plan, European businesses are fighting against US counterparts, I wonder if adopting their language is the best way to protect our markets. But then it would be easier to penetrate their market ;-)
On a geopolitical plan, choosing English as a first language would further cement Western civilization and strengthen it against other blocks. But would a European voice be heard in this scenario?
Techno-optimists will say we don’t need a common language because AI and bots will automatically translate for us. Human beings like to have direct conversations; thus, I’m not sure having a machine in between would work. I am sure it will not work but for specific needs.
OK, what are the options if we put aside English and bots?
It’s fun to think we could all speak Portuguese, Polish, or Greek :-)
Let’s sketch a few sensible choices:
Spanish is the fourth most spoken language in the world, with about 500 million native speakers. It originated in southern Europe and spread to Central and South America. It’s worth noting that 40 million people in the US speak Spanish. It’s a strong choice, but would Northern and Eastern Europe approve of this choice, which is far from their root languages?
French and German could be interesting choices, but both are complex languages to master, and the rivalry between France and Germany would make one appear submissive to the other. France has a good foothold in Africa, where the population is growing fast, while Germany is at the heart of Europe, making it a central choice.
Seriously funny thoughts
Let’s be daring by considering more controversial choices in 2023:
Some form of Arabic is spoken by about 300 million people in North Africa and the Middle East, neighbors of Europe. There are many Arabic dialects, so Europeans choosing the modern standard Arabic would unify it. What a fantastic “turn the tables” move when Europeans are currently afraid of raising Muslim influence!
About 200 million people speak Russian, the language with the most native speakers in (an extended) Europe. Mr Putin will not be there in 2/3 generations, so this could be a bold bet to unite Europe and Russia through the language. Not sure our US friends would like it, though ;-)
Last but not least, inventing an entirely new language would be a great option, albeit futuristic. It would not favor anyone but would miss geopolitical opportunities.
The Esperanto never took off, and the Interlingua may face the same fate without political will.
I have kept a last trick up my sleeve for pop culture: why not use the talent of Mr. J.R.R. Tolkien in inventing languages?
Shall we speak Elvish?
In a nutshell
I had much fun imagining Europe choosing a new unifying language.
Still, it’s a serious issue that shouldn’t be dismissed.
I fear Europe is frozen and needs a new enthusiastic project to warm up. Financial markets had the Euro currency, which is excellent but could be more engaging for citizens.
Adopting a common language would make sense for economic, geopolitical, and cohesiveness reasons. It would also improve communication, understanding, and tolerance among Europeans. It would replace Europe as a robust unified continent on the world map and send a strong message to all those seeking division as a means to their end.
Local languages don’t have to be thrown away. Learning French or German as a second or third language would still pay tribute to our roots, culture, and values.
Will my grandchildren learn a new language?
I wish they would.